William Byrnes' Tax, Wealth, and Risk Intelligence

William Byrnes (Texas A&M) tax & compliance articles

Posts Tagged ‘Congressional Budget Office’

Economy and Budget: Long-Term Outlook

Posted by William Byrnes on March 27, 2011

Why is this Topic Important to Wealth Managers?   A wealth manager should be able to present Advanced Market Intelligence on the long-term economic impact of government spending and its ability to raise revenues with clients.

The United States faces daunting economic and budgetary challenges. The economy has struggled to recover from the recent recession, which was triggered by a large decline in house prices and a financial crisis—events unlike anything this country has seen since the Great Depression.

For the federal government, the sharply lower revenues and elevated spending deriving from the financial turmoil and severe drop in economic activity—combined with the costs of various policies implemented in response to those conditions and an imbalance between revenues and spending that predated the recession—have caused budget deficits to surge in the past two years. The deficits of $1.4 trillion in 2009 and $1.3 trillion in 2010 are, when measured as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest since 1945—representing 10.0 percent and  8.9 percent of the nation’s output, respectively. [1]

Also, the recovery in employment has been slowed not only by the moderate growth in output in the past year and a half but also by structural changes in the labor market, such as a mismatch between the requirements of available jobs and the skills of job seekers, that have hindered the employment of workers who have lost their job. Payroll employment, which declined by 7.3 million during the recent recession, gained a mere 70,000 jobs (or 0.06 percent), on net, between June 2009 and December 2010. [2]

However, under current law, CBO projects, budget deficits will drop markedly over the next few years—to $1.1 trillion in 2012, $704 billion in 2013, and $533 billion in 2014. Relative to the size of the economy, those deficits represent 7.0 percent of GDP in 2012, 4.3 percent in 2013, and 3.1 percent in 2014. From 2015 through 2021, the deficits in the baseline projections range from 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent of GDP. [3]

Nevertheless, the deficits that will accumulate under current law will push federal debt held by the public to significantly higher levels. Just two years ago, debt held by the public was less than $6 trillion, or about 40 percent of GDP; at the end of fiscal year 2010, such debt was roughly $9 trillion, or 62 percent of GDP, and by the end of 2021, it is projected to climb to $18 trillion, or 77 percent of GDP. [4] Read the analysis at AdvisorFYI


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2012 Federal Budget Proposed – High Debt Continues

Posted by William Byrnes on March 22, 2011

Why is this Topic Important to Wealth Managers? Clients will often ask for your “take” on the annual federal budget.   It is important to show the client a command of the the facts and figures before addressing the political perspective of spending and revenue.  Any producer can “mime” someone else’s perspective.  Distinguish yourself with a command of the underlying numbers.  Thus, this week Advanced Market Intelligence presents the facts and figures of the proposed federal budget for fiscal year 2012.

The new 2012 Federal Budget was released by the President.  Below is a summary of the inflows and outflows concerning next year’s proposed budget (in billions of dollars).


Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:   Security $ 884/Non-security 456; Subtotal—appropriated programs: 1,340

Mandatory programs: Social Security $ 761, Medicare 485, Medicaid 269, Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 13, Other mandatory programs 612; Subtotal, mandatory programs 2,140, Net interest 242, Disaster costs 8

Total outlays 3,819


Individual income taxes $ 1,141, Corporation income taxes 329

Social insurance and retirement receipts: Social Security payroll taxes 659,Medicare payroll taxes 201, Unemployment insurance 57, Other retirement 8, Excise taxes 103, Estate and gift taxes 14, Customs duties 30, Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System 66, Other miscellaneous receipts 20

Total receipts 2,627

2012 Deficit $ 1,101

Here are some noted observations of the current budget:   Read the analysis at AdvisorFYI


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