Wealth & Risk Management Blog

William Byrnes (Texas A&M) tax & compliance articles

Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve System’

Could QE2 Spawn 70s Style Stagflation?

Posted by William Byrnes on April 13, 2011


The Federal Reserve may consider downsizing its original plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury bonds over fear that inflation could be driven to dangerous levels by the revitalized economy.  Quantitative easing—the purchase of Treasuries by the central bank—is intended to raise the price of Treasuries, which should lower long-term interest rates and provide banks with cash to lend to their customers. The expectation is that lower long-term rates will encourage home refis and boost corporate investments and expansion, which, it is hoped, will created new jobs.  Read this complete analysis of the impact at AdvisorFX (sign up for a free trial subscription with full access to all of the planning libraries and client presentations if you are not already a subscriber).

For previous coverage of quantitative easing in Advisor’s Journal, see Fed to Purchase $600 Billion in Treasuries in Move to Stimulate Economy (CC 10-94).

 

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2012 Federal Budget Proposed – High Debt Continues

Posted by William Byrnes on March 22, 2011


Why is this Topic Important to Wealth Managers? Clients will often ask for your “take” on the annual federal budget.   It is important to show the client a command of the the facts and figures before addressing the political perspective of spending and revenue.  Any producer can “mime” someone else’s perspective.  Distinguish yourself with a command of the underlying numbers.  Thus, this week Advanced Market Intelligence presents the facts and figures of the proposed federal budget for fiscal year 2012.

The new 2012 Federal Budget was released by the President.  Below is a summary of the inflows and outflows concerning next year’s proposed budget (in billions of dollars).

Outlays:

Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:   Security $ 884/Non-security 456; Subtotal—appropriated programs: 1,340

Mandatory programs: Social Security $ 761, Medicare 485, Medicaid 269, Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 13, Other mandatory programs 612; Subtotal, mandatory programs 2,140, Net interest 242, Disaster costs 8

Total outlays 3,819

Receipts:

Individual income taxes $ 1,141, Corporation income taxes 329

Social insurance and retirement receipts: Social Security payroll taxes 659,Medicare payroll taxes 201, Unemployment insurance 57, Other retirement 8, Excise taxes 103, Estate and gift taxes 14, Customs duties 30, Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System 66, Other miscellaneous receipts 20

Total receipts 2,627

2012 Deficit $ 1,101

Here are some noted observations of the current budget:   Read the analysis at AdvisorFYI

 

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The Recession: Over or America’s Lost Decade?

Posted by William Byrnes on January 12, 2011


Some economists are reporting that the recession is officially over.

Others are less optimistic, suggesting that the recession could last into 2012. And with unemployment numbers hovering around 10 percent, median household income falling, and foreclosures mounting, the most important part of any potential recovery, the public, is still cynical.

What if even the most cynical predictions for the world economy are underestimating the length of the path to recovery?

One economist is predicting that the current recession could last until 2018.  Read this complete article at AdvisorFX (sign up for a free trial subscription with full access to all of the planning libraries and client presentations if you are not already a subscriber).

For previous coverage of the economic downturn in Advisor’s Journal, see Fed to Purchase $600 Billion in Treasuries in Move to Stimulate Economy (CC 10-94).

 

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